HomeEditor's PickHere’s why Ethereum may crash to $2,500 despite $746M in ETF inflows

Here’s why Ethereum may crash to $2,500 despite $746M in ETF inflows

Ethereum price has consolidated below $2,800 after gaining more than 8% over the past week, as steady US spot ETF inflows have met selling near the September high.

At the time of writing, CoinGecko priced Ethereum at roughly $2,681, with the flagship altcoin down 0.3% over the past 24 hours but up 8.8% over seven days.

Ethereum has traded mainly between $2,635 and $2,700 during the latest session after reaching a recent high near $2,786.

ETH’s sideways move follows a rally from under $2,400 last week.

Buyers pushed the token through $2,500 and $2,600 before selling picked up between $2,700 and $2,800, leaving ETH unable to hold its brief moves towards the upper end of that zone.

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $66.1 million in net inflows on September 24, extending their positive run to five consecutive sessions.

Combined inflows over the period reached roughly $746.5 million, helping support ETH as buyers repeatedly stepped in around $2,625 to $2,650 even as the token struggled to clear $2,700.

Institutional buying has extended beyond ETFs, with Bitmine’s Ethereum holdings reaching nearly 5.98 million ETH this week after the company acquired another 27,562 ETH.

The purchases have come while ETH has held most of its recent gains, with the token still up more than 8% over seven days despite its rejection near $2,800.

ETH’s retreat from $2,786 has also cleared some leveraged long positions from the market.

According to CoinGlass, $43.1 million in Ethereum futures positions were liquidated on September 24, with long positions accounting for $28.1 million.

That followed $72.8 million in liquidations during the previous session, when longs made up nearly 84% of the total, pointing to continued pressure on leveraged bullish positions during ETH’s pullback.

Higher US Treasury yields have coincided with ETH’s failure to extend its rally above $2,800.

The 10 year yield reached roughly 5.15% on Thursday as ETH slipped back towards the mid $2,600s after touching $2,786.

Price action has consequently narrowed between buyers around $2,625 to $2,650 and sellers closer to $2,700 to $2,800.

A break from either side would determine whether ETH resumes its September rally or returns towards the support levels formed earlier this month.

ETH price analysis

Ethereum’s daily chart still holds a bullish structure despite the rejection near $2,800.

ETH trades near $2,679 and remains above the Ichimoku cloud, while the Tenkan sen sits near $2,610 and the Kijun sen near $2,582. See below.

ETH/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The Tenkan sen above the Kijun sen supports the current uptrend, and both lines now provide reference points if ETH loses the $2,625 area. 

A daily close below $2,610 would bring $2,582 into focus, while a break below the Kijun sen could open a move towards the $2,550 to $2,500 region.

The forward Ichimoku cloud remains green, with its upper boundary near $2,596. 

Price therefore remains above the main trend support even after pulling back from $2,786. 

Losing the cloud around $2,600 to $2,580 would weaken the structure that has developed since ETH moved above $2,000 in August.

On balance, volume has climbed to 35.06 million alongside the September rally. 

OBV moved higher as ETH broke out of its August range and has remained close to its recent high during the latest consolidation, showing that the pullback from $2,800 has not yet been accompanied by a comparable fall in cumulative volume.

Meanwhile, Aroon gives a similar reading on the daily timeframe. Aroon Up stands at 71.43%, compared with Aroon Down at 28.57%.

ETH/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

Aroon Up has fallen from 100%; however, ETH has spent seveAroonral sessions below its latest high.

A return in Aroon Up towards 100% alongside a break above $2,800 would confirm a new daily high. ETH could then target $2,900, followed by the psychological $3,000 level.

The Fibonacci structure shows how far ETH has already moved from its June low near $1,512. 

The previous swing high used for the retracement sits near $2,666, which ETH has now moved above, while the 0.236 retracement lies much lower at $2,394.

Holding above $2,666 would keep ETH close enough to retest $2,780 to $2,800. A daily close above $2,800 would leave $2,900 as the next probable target before $3,000.

Failure to hold $2,625 would instead expose the Ichimoku support cluster between $2,610 and $2,582. 

Below it, $2,550 and $2,500 become the next areas to watch, while the Fibonacci 0.236 level near $2,394 would become relevant if ETH loses $2,500 and returns towards its September breakout zone.

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