Updated 5 November 2026, 07:00 GMT. Spot gold traded at $4,134.83 an ounce at 03:16 GMT on Thursday, up almost 2 percent and at its highest level since 22 October (Reuters price table via Discovery Alert). Goodreturns had it above $4,137 at 03:52 GMT. That follows a 3.47 percent jump on Wednesday, gold’s biggest one-day gain since 19 August, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and the dollar index fell to about 101.3, a one-month low. Verdict: the election move is extending, not fading, and gold has already cleared the $4,104-$4,115 zone that capped it on Wednesday. December hike odds are still near 80 percent, so Friday’s 6 November jobs report is the test. Reference levels: $4,000 below, $4,225 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold $4,134.83 at 03:16 GMT Thursday 5 November, up about 1.9 percent; December COMEX futures $4,144.20, up 1.8 percent (Reuters table via Discovery Alert).
- Wednesday: spot gold finished US trading near $4,065.90, up $136.50 or 3.47 percent (Kitco).
- Silver: spot silver $53.12 at 03:16 GMT, up 1.7 percent, after a 5.25 percent gain on Wednesday (Discovery Alert, Kitco).
- The dollar: the US dollar index fell about 0.5 percent to roughly 101.31 on Wednesday, which Kitco described as a five-week low. The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 4.88 percent (Kitco).
- The Fed: CME FedWatch puts the chance of a December rate hike at 79 to 82 percent, depending on the snapshot (Trading Economics via Goodreturns; Discovery Alert). The Fed meets on 8-9 December.
- Jobs: ADP counted 86,000 private jobs in October against a 67,000 consensus (Kitco). The official October payrolls report is due Friday 6 November at 8:30 a.m. ET; a Reuters poll looks for 65,000 jobs after 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2 percent.
What changed since Wednesday
Our Wednesday gold page had December futures at $4,027.30 early in the session and put the upper reference level at $4,115. Gold went through it within a day. Spot added another $136 during the US session on Wednesday, and Asian buyers pushed it about $70 higher again overnight.
Wall Street helped rather than hurt. The Dow rose 3.00 percent to 53,356.12, the S&P 500 1.58 percent and the Nasdaq 1.44 percent (Kitco), as investors treated a divided government as the end of election uncertainty. Gold rising alongside stocks tells you the driver is the dollar and yields, not fear. The dollar’s side of the move is covered in our report on the dollar’s fall to a one-month low.
Oil added to it. Brent lost close to 9 percent on Wednesday on bets that Washington and Tehran are near a settlement, which lowers the inflation outlook that has kept the Fed leaning towards a hike. Our Thursday Brent page covers that side.
What analysts are saying
Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, said gold could move towards $4,200 and then $4,400 if it holds above $4,000, “provided investment flows and yield trends remain supportive” (Discovery Alert, 5 November). Citi, in a note reported by Reuters on 5 November, has a 0-3 month target of $4,500 and a 6-12 month target of $5,000, with a downside case near $3,500 if disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues. State Street’s base case is $4,500 to $5,250 over 12 months.
Those are medium-term numbers. For this week the question is narrower: whether the dollar keeps sliding into Friday’s data. A Reuters survey from 27 October had a median 2026 average of $4,495.
What could stop it
The Fed. Hike odds of around 80 percent have barely moved through the whole rally. ADP’s 86,000 beat the consensus, and Artem Bakushev, head of risk at Monaxa, told Kitco the data “reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve still has room to raise interest rates.” Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing.
A payrolls number well above the 65,000 consensus would pull those odds higher, lift the dollar and put the $4,000 line back in play. Discovery Alert called $4,000 a “contested line”. Gold has been above it for barely a day.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,000 | Payrolls come in well above 65,000, hike odds rise above 85 percent and the dollar recovers the election loss. | The $4,000 line gold reclaimed on Wednesday; about 3.3 percent below $4,134.83. |
| Base | $4,065-$4,185 | Gold holds Wednesday’s gains but stalls into Friday’s report. | Between Wednesday’s US close near $4,065.90 (Kitco) and the lower edge of Mitrade’s $4,187-$4,227 resistance zone. |
| Bull | $4,225 | Payrolls miss, hike odds fall and the dollar keeps sliding. | Top of Mitrade’s $4,187-$4,227 resistance zone and above XS.com’s first $4,200 target; about 2.2 percent above spot. |
The bear case sits below Thursday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified spot price, not forecasts.
What to watch
- The US session on Thursday: whether gold keeps the overnight gain once New York opens, or gives some back as it did after early peaks this week.
- The dollar index near 101.3: a move back above 101.9, where it stood before the election, would undo most of gold’s support.
- Payrolls on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET: the consensus is 65,000 (Reuters poll).
- Brent: another leg lower in oil would cut inflation expectations and help gold; a failed US-Iran deal would do the opposite.
- Silver: it has outrun gold this week. See our silver week-ahead page for the levels that framed the rally.
Quick take: Gold is at about $4,135 on Thursday, its highest since 22 October, after a 3.47 percent jump on Wednesday when Democrats won Congress and the dollar fell to a one-month low. The rally has cleared Wednesday’s resistance, but December hike odds near 80 percent have not moved. Expect $4,065-$4,185 into Friday’s payrolls; $4,000 needs a strong jobs number, $4,225 needs a weak one.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold traded at $4,134.83 an ounce at 03:16 GMT on Thursday 5 November, up almost 2 percent, and December futures at $4,144.20 (Reuters table via Discovery Alert). Goodreturns reported it above $4,137 at 03:52 GMT.
Why is gold going up?
Democrats won both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterms. The dollar index fell to about 101.3 and Treasury yields dropped, which makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers and cuts the cost of holding it (Kitco). Lower oil prices have also eased inflation worries.
Is gold at a record high?
No. It is at its highest level since 22 October (Reuters via Discovery Alert). Gold is still recovering from October’s sell-off, covered in our gold and silver October review.
When is the jobs report and why does it matter for gold?
The US October employment report is out on Friday 6 November at 8:30 a.m. ET. A Reuters poll expects 65,000 jobs. A strong number would raise the chance of a December Fed hike, which is negative for gold; a weak one would support it.
What are the key gold levels this week?
Support near $4,065 and then $4,000; resistance at $4,187-$4,227 (Mitrade) and $4,200 (Kitco).
What do banks expect for gold?
Citi has $4,500 for the next three months and $5,000 for 6-12 months; State Street’s 12-month base case is $4,500-$5,250 (Reuters and Discovery Alert, 5 November). Forecasts change quickly and are not guarantees.
Sources: Discovery Alert, 5 November (Reuters price table at 03:16 GMT, highest since 22 October, Reuters payrolls poll, XS.com, Citi, State Street and Reuters survey forecasts, FedWatch odds); Goodreturns live blog, 5 November (spot above $4,137 at 9:22 IST, FedWatch via Trading Economics); Kitco PM report, 4 November (spot close, silver, dollar index, yields, US index closes, technical levels); Kitco, 4 November (ADP October data, Monaxa comment); Mitrade, 5 November (resistance zones).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
