With prediction markets drawing renewed interest from Wall Street and web3 alike, Gemini is reportedly planning a CFTC-approved exchange to stake its claim in the booming sector.
Although the crypto exchange itself has not made any official statements on the matter, sources who claim to be familiar with the company’s strategy have told Bloomberg that Gemini intends to launch regulated event contracts once it secures approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
According to the sources, Gemini applied in May for a derivatives exchange license under the Commodity Exchange Act, seeking designation as a contract market that would allow users to trade event-based contracts tied to sports, politics, and economic outcomes.
But the approval process has been slowed by the ongoing US government shutdown, which has delayed new regulatory reviews across several agencies.
Nevertheless, if Gemini manages to secure the green light, it would join Kalshi, Polymarket, and many of its direct competitors who have recently stepped foot in a market that has seen a surge of activity and investor interest from both traditional finance and crypto-native platforms.
For Gemini, the last few months have been particularly active, as the crypto exchange debuted on Nasdaq, and has consistently rolled out new products while also accelerating its global expansion.
Late last month, Gemini introduced its Solana Edition credit card with an auto‑staking rewards feature, just weeks after it launched its Australian subsidiary to strengthen its presence across the Asia‑Pacific region.
Crypto firms rush to grab market share
Under the pro‑crypto administration led by Donald Trump, prediction markets have emerged as the latest frontier for regulated innovation, with the administration largely supportive of efforts to bring event‑based contracts under formal oversight.
At one point, prediction markets were viewed as a legal grey area, with agencies like the CFTC scrutinising whether such products fell too close to gambling.
But earlier this year, the commission, along with the Department of Justice, formally closed its investigations into Polymarket and subsequently dropped pending actions against Kalshi, signalling a policy shift that opened the door for new entrants.
Soon after, Truth Social, a platform directly backed by Trump, disclosed plans for its own prediction feature called Truth Predict in partnership with Crypto.com Derivatives North America.
Since then, a flurry of companies, including Hollywood.com, Underdog, and Solana’s Jupiter exchange, have moved to launch their own versions of specialised prediction offerings.
Some regulators are still unsure about prediction markets
Even though several firms have leaned into regulated frameworks and CFTC oversight, some state authorities in the US and regulators across certain parts of the globe have yet to fully embrace the model, citing concerns around legality and market integrity.
Kalshi, which is one of the biggest players in the space, along with some of the firm’s competitors like Robinhood, are facing legal challenges, including cease and desist orders, lawsuits, and scrutiny over whether their markets constitute unlawful gambling.
Elsewhere, platforms like Polymarket have been blocked in jurisdictions such as Poland, Singapore, and Belgium, while Crypto.com’s sports event contracts have triggered enforcement actions in US states like Nevada, Ohio, and Michigan.
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